I have received all the recommendations. I have processed all the data. I have built the Matrix, and my fantasy world is complete. I am ready to play.
My team in 2011 was strong because I had the 2011 Fantasy Player of the Year. Webb Simpson easily earned the most money above
his salary cost. Simpson cashed over $6 million at a cost of $1 million. A 6:1 return still didn’t allow me to finish better than 5th place, and didn’t get any honors in the pool. This was because we had three players, Mike Weir, Jamie Lovemark and Michael Sim, who carried an aggregate cost of $3 million and barely cleared $100,000 combined! That was just a killer.
But we won all our side bets in 2011, because all our side bets were designed to fade Tiger Woods. Woods cost his investors $4 million in 2011, and returned a little over $600,000. That was an intelligent play. By me. Yay!
But enough of last year. The question is what to do this year with $12 million in salary to spend? This year and last year both kind of
started with a binary decision on Tiger Woods. This year Tiger has been assigned a posted salary of $2.5 million. If he was given his assigned salary of $700,000 (rounding up to the nearest $100k for salary purposes) then we might as well kick him out of the pool, as everyone would be forced to take him as a defensive pick. By posting his salary at $2.5 million, it at least forces a binary decision. Do I take him or not? More than half the suggestions I received said take him. I agree.
With only one win, Tiger is sure to earn at least $2 million on the year. If he wins twice, he is going to out earn his salary, and he could do it only winning once if he has enough top ten finishes. To me, he looks motivated, and he sounds like he is finally past the psychological issues that had to plague him during the course of the last couple years. If he gets hot, he has significant upside to the $2.5 million salary. And by the way, I’m tired of rooting against him. It’s time to embrace the comeback. It’s time to show my side bet patsies that I know when to take Tiger better than they do. Go Tiger!
So that leaves me with $9.5 million left to spend. The next guy is a no-brainer. In 2010 I drafted Rory McIlroy for $900k and he
earned me $2.5 million. Then he kind of skipped out on his PGA Tour membership, but still earned $2.3 million in PGA Tour-eligible earnings due to his U.S. Open win and his World Golf Championship earnings. For 2012, he has renewed his PGA Tour card and vowed to play more here in the U.S. This boy can win ANYTHING he plays in. The only way he earns less than his $2.4 million salary cost is if he gets injured. Otherwise by my assessment McIlroy is almost automatic for $4 million-$5 million in earnings. And he is easy to root for too!
Now I’m down to $7.1 million left to spend. I received multiple requests for Rickie Fowler. Rickie was also on my 2010 team with a cost of $700k and a return that year of $2.4 million. I agree with
my readers that Fowler is ready to have that giant breakout year, including his first PGA Tour victory. Rickie costs $2.1 million in salary, and I think he could jump his earnings as high as McIlroys; somewhere in the $4million-$5 million area. It also helps that Fowler will play close to 25 events. That gives him lots of chances to win.
OK, we have $5 million left. The next one is simply another no brainer. In fact, this is a defensive pick as he will be on almost every sheet. Lee Westwood is taking a PGA Tour card this year. He comes at the
ridiculously modest cost of $1.4 million. In 2010 Westwood earned $3.5 million with his PGA Tour card, and he’s arguably playing better now than he was then. In the search for players that can return two times their salary, Westwood simply is too easy to pass up.
This brings us to $3.6 million in remaining salary to spend. With a few breaks we could have $15 million in earnings already with Woods, McIlroy, Fowler and Westwood. We need another $7 million in earnings at least to hit the money. Last year $17 million won the pool (with a starting salary pool of $11 million), but in 2010 it took over $25 million (with a starting salary pool of $13 million). It will definitely take over $20 million to get there.
Jim Furyk earned a paltry $1.5 million last year. It’s the first time he earned less than $3.4 million in a year since 2004, a year in which he was injured. Furyk is one of the grittiest competitors we have ever seen. We have not had great success playing bounce backs from over 40 year-old guys, but if we need $7 million more from the last few picks, Furyk is as good a bet as anyone to get back to $3 million in earnings, and possibly a lot more. With a 2011 salary of $1.6 million, Furyk simply makes good sense as a value play. That leaves us with $2 million left to spend.
There was a lot of support for Anthony Kim. Kim is another retread from my 2010 team. In 2010 he cost $2 million and returned
over $2.5 million and he didn’t even finish the year because of thumb surgery. He played 26 events in 2011, but it was clear that his thumb wasn’t right until the end of the year. While his current world ranking of 75th hurts, he will certainly be driving himself to make the Ryder Cup team. That means he will play a lot and could easily double up his current $1.1 million salary.
Louis Oosthuizen has a modest salary of $800,000, so one big showing in a PGA Tour eligible event and
Oosthuizen will cover his salary. Two big showings and we’ll have our money doubled. After the FedEx Cup playoffs were finished, Oosthuizen had five top-ten finishes in 6 non-Tour events. His second year on the PGA Tour should be far more successful than 2012, especially since he will now know the courses better. His world ranking of 39th in the world will keep him in all the big events too. Oosthuizen is a Dan the Cow re-tread, and a good chance to thumb Dan in the udder!
So what suggestions did we pass on? There were many:
James Driscoll: Driscoll seems to finally be maturing, but at a cost of $800k, we can’t help but note that with 6 years of PGA Tour status, he has never earned more than $850k. We have to pass.
Jimmy Walker: Walker is a very streaky player, and he has also been injury prone throughout his career. He simply does not have that mega-upside that makes him worth the injury risk. Especially following a year where the injury bug cost me cash.
Graeme McDowell: This guy was VERY hard to pass on, especially since I love to watch him play. I even asked myself the following question: If Anthony Kim and Graeme McDowell were coming down the stretch head-to-head, who would I guess would come out ahead, because their salary cost is the same? My best guess is probably the gritty McDowell. McDowell’s high world ranking is also a plus at 13th in the world. But McDowell only played 16 times in 2011 and Kim played 26 times, which translates into extra chances to win. So I had to let McDowell go.
Padraig Harrington: He was on my team last year. I love the guy, but there can be no doubt he is a head case. So it was Harrington at $900,000 salary or Oosthuizen at $800,000. I landed on Oosthuizen as his future seems to be in front of him.
Sang-Moon Bae: This PGA Tour rookie earned his card at Q-School. But due to his work in Asia he is already ranked 30th in the world, so he is going to get into all the big events. But I think Bae is going to fall prey to rookie-it is. He’s a poor driver of the ball, short and crooked. If it weren’t for his putter we wouldn’t even be a professional, but PGA Tour courses are not cream puffs like Asia. They are tough. Too tough for Bae.
So here it is. The 2012 Team Alexander:
Rory McIlroy
Rickie Fowler
Jim Furyk
Lee Westwood
Anthony Kim
Louis Oosthuizen
This team will have a chance to win almost every week. I will make a serious prediction about this team. There are 45 eligible events in 2012. I believe my team will record more than 10 wins this year. If that isn’t good enough to get to the teller’s window, then so be it.

