I’ll admit it. I know plenty of guys that like to plunk down a couple bucks when the value is right. They look to me for guidance and expertise. They don’t always bet. They are not a junkies. When they bet they tend to win more often than they lose because they know that I look for uncommon values. Let’s face it, you never see the winners at a Gambler’s Anonymous meeting. They are too busy drinking champagne and sleeping with the Prom Queen.

So how do I do it? I always look at odds for golf majors, because from time to time you can find odds that are just out of whack. If you get one right, it can cover the next ten years of action. This year’s British Open offers the astute action man some uncommon values.

First Rule of Thumb: Almost never go below 20:1 odds. I always thought Tiger Woods at 3:1 in any major was an absurdly stupid bet. It simply couldn’t pay off over time. After all, a golfer is playing against the field, and the filed never has a bad day. Someone else always plays well. No, my guys need serious bucks back if I call this right.

Second Rule of Thumb: Stick with proven past winners. The second and third majors always come easier than the first one. These guys know what the heat feels like, and even when their recent form hasn’t been great, they seem to know how to rise to the occasion.

Third Rule of Thumb: Understand the golf course. Royal St. George’s is very quirky. The winner will have to withstand several bad breaks during the course of the week, because this is one of the most unfathomable layouts in the British Open rota. Bad bounces are the norm. So we are looking for serious mental toughness in our selections.

So looking at the assembled field and the posted odds, here are my value selections:

Graeme McDowell (28:1) – Graeme McDowell had a decent U.S. Open, and has played better in Europe than he has in the U.S. this year. He is clearly a top ten player world-wide. He has the mental fortitude of a bulldog. He simply will not let a bad break bring him down, and he showed his heart in the heat against Tiger last fall, and in the Ryder Cup. If you told me they would play this Championship 28 times and he would never win it, I wouldn’t believe you. Thus, 28:1 odds have to be too high.

Padraig Harrington (40:1) – Harrington’s form was off earlier this year when he was fooling around with his swing and also was feeling trouble from an injured knee. But a top 15 in the Scottish Open with three rounds in the 60’s on a pure link layout tells me he’s ready to play. The fact that the Scottish Open was cut down to only 3 rounds should help his knee withstand the stress of back-to-back weeks. If anyone thinks mental toughness is an issue with Harrington, they haven’t paid attention to his career. Each of his major wins required incredible toughness down the stretch, and he was born to links golf. Posted odds of 40:1 represents incredible value on a three-time major winner.

Phil Mickelson (40:1) – The idea that you could get 40:1 odds on Phil Mickelson in any golf tournament is crazy. Yes, yes, I have read all the stories that he stinks at links golf. He is still Phil Mickelson. I have read all the stories that he can’t putt slow greens. He is still Phil Mickelson. But we also know that Phil is one of the best proposition bettors on the Tour. I would venture a guess that Phil can’t pass up 40:1 odds on Phil. Royal St. George will require tremendous imagination to deal with the humps and bumps that lead to crazy bounces. No one can deny that Phil has as much imagination as any player that ever lived. Also, you don’t win three Masters and a PGA without a little mental toughness.

That is my betting trifecta. Not only would it be no surprise if one of these guys won, but they have the added benefit of being easy to root for as well. That is a betting psychological benefit that helps my proposition. Good luck to you. But more importantly, good luck to my guys!